Is exponential growth leading to collapse?
Unveiling the Looming Societal Collapse: Exploring Factors and Technological Hopes
Research conducted using MIT’s World3 model in 1972 suggested that society would collapse by 2040, a follow-up study by KPMG found that we are ahead of schedule for societal collapse.
What general factors would a person studying economics with the basic idea of theories consider? I would argue that the factors would be population (with birth rate and death rate), production of resources (mainly food), capital, accumulated and diminishing resources, and technology (more like the progress scale).
Historical collapses were due to political, social, cultural, environmental, and economic issues. For instance, the collapse of Pompeii due to the eruption of Mount Vesuvius, the collapse of the Aztec empire after resistance against the Spanish, the eventual collapse of the Roman Empire (detailed blog in coming weeks), various great empires throughout history that fell due to political issues, social and cultural issues, environmental issues, and economic issues.
The modern civilization we live in is advanced (the very obvious technological progress), but vulnerable.
A computer model called World3, used by MIT in their research to analyze population, industrial output, food production, available resources, and pollution is a system’s dynamic approach (for policy making); It replicates the working of real-life systems. The outcomes varied and were further explored with the most optimistic scenario being the one which relied on technological innovations and sustainable practices.
With the assumptions being innovation is constant but either productivity in labor and machinery increases or technology increases all else being equal (completely linear).
However, the other outcome called "Business as Usual 2" projected a complete collapse. In this model, the industrial output reaches a viable level but starts to fall due to a lack of labor. The decreased productivity, according to the outcome, is a result due to increased negative externality (in the form of pollution), and a drop in production (the ability to produce the required food).
The positive output suggested is “Comprehensive Technological progress”. Where population decline doesn’t matter in a stabilized world scenario, the assumption ignores the negative externality and technological innovation (not progress).
With everything being stated, is the argument around population and production only? Does population growth mean a threat to diminishing resources or decreasing abundance or does it lead to a better workforce?
An initiative to understand this better, feel free to criticize -
Introducing new variables of population growth in that particular region would create the same strain. So are production (food) and population inter-dependent variables? Possibly, yes.
To learn more about the research feel free to read The Limits to Growth.
Through the lens of contemporary challenges, it's imperative to discuss certain emerging factors that can reshape the narrative around societal collapse. Climate change, for instance, casts a daunting shadow over our ability to sustain food production. This is no longer a hypothetical concern, as regions like East Africa and South East Asia are already grappling with the adversities of changing weather patterns affecting their crop yields. As the world braces for potential food shortages, could the advent of generative AI technology come to the rescue in another aspect? With the looming threat of famine potentially causing a labor gap, there's speculation that AI platforms, akin to ChatGPT, might offer solutions. These intelligent systems could shoulder some responsibilities, optimizing tasks and, in certain sectors, substituting the diminishing human labor force. While this isn't a full-fledged solution, it's a testament to how modern technology could play a role in circumventing some of the challenges posed by the "Business as Usual 2" outcome.
In facing escalating climate challenges, the role of innovative technology cannot be understated. Beyond adaptation, state-of-the-art technological solutions are actively seeking to counteract the impacts of climate change. Geoengineering could offer solutions through ambitious strategies like solar radiation management to cool the Earth by reflecting a fraction of sunlight back into space. Other advancements in carbon capture and storage (CCS) technologies offer promise in separating large volumes of CO2 directly from the atmosphere, effectively reducing greenhouse gas concentrations. On a more localized scale, precision agriculture, powered by AI and satellite data, is enabling farmers to optimize their practices for changing weather patterns, ensuring food security in vulnerable regions. Together, these technological interventions underscore the potential to not just adapt to a changing climate but to proactively steer our planet towards a more stable and sustainable trajectory.
In conclusion, the research conducted by using MIT’s world3 model raises concerns about the potential collapse of society due to exponential growth. Factors such as population, resource production, technology, and historical collapses all contribute to this discussion. While human innovation and interventions may offer hope, without significant changes, societal collapse remains a looming possibility.